Showing posts with label Foreign Policy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Foreign Policy. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 9, 2020

Review of Scott Horton's Fool's Errand from the December Greater Sturbridge Town & Country Living Magazine.

Was This Trip Necessary?


Fool's Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan 

By Scott Horton

The Libertarian Institute, 2017


By Richard Morchoe 


Scott Horton, author of Fool's Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan, begins the last section of the book thus: "The occupation of Afghanistan is not just America's longest foreign war.  It may also have the distinction of being both the least supported and least opposed war in our history."  Nineteen years on, it is a zombie conflict with its think tank and military supporters coming up with little rhyme or reason to be there other than to be there.


The people may not be following all that closely, but there is a constituency doing well, the suppliers of the war material are passionately supporting our sojourn over there.


Horton's Fool's Errand could be assigned as the text of a college survey course on our involvement even before the events of 911.  The book is exhaustively documented and foot noted.  Mr. Horton is director of the Libertarian Institute as well as editorial director of Antiwar.com.  He hosts Antiwar Radio Pacifica, 90.7 FM KPFK in Los Angeles, California, and also a podcast, the Scott Horton Show from Scott Horton.org.


As he is associated with Antiwar.com, it would not be difficult to observe that he probably looks at our Afghan involvement with a critical eye, if the title, Fool's Errand did not give it away.


Full disclosure, your reviewer has contributed content to Antiwar.com and has a slight acquaintance with Mr. Horton.


It is not easy to make sense of the long engagement in Afghanistan, maybe because it can't make sense.  A cliché analogy would be it is a hall of mirrors and that is as good as any.  We have lurched from one bad decision to another.


It goes without saying that the events of 911 did not just happen out of the blue.  George Bush's comment about hating our freedom does not hold up, as a read of Scott's book would demonstrate.  The lack of reason is accentuated when the rationale that we have to "Fight them over there so we don't have to fight them over here" is used.  Even when an attack happens in the "homeland” (e.g. the Boston Marathon Bombing) the answer does not change.


So, what did cause certain denizens of the Islamic east to carry out the attack on the Twin Towers and set off almost two decades of war?


Scott Horton cites University of Chicago professor Robert Pape who undertook a study of Islam to figure out the cause of suicide terrorism.  He was shocked when he found out that it was not religion that led to the attacks, but reaction to foreign occupation.


People of other faiths would also resort to self-destruction as part of their resistance.  Not so long ago, the Tamils, who are not Muslims, fought a long war of liberation against the Sri Lankan state and would use the tactic.


Pape and his grad students built a database "of every suicide attacker on earth since 1980."  The findings; these are not losers who have given up on life.  "The single most significant factor in determining whether someone would commit an act of suicide terrorism was the presence of foreign combat forces on the attacker’s territory."


It would have been a good idea to think about how Arabs and Muslims might react to our troops on Saudi soil or the first war against Iraq.  Nah, just go with hate us for our freedom as motive.


Anyway, no matter the motive, the attack of 911 was, murder most foul.  The United States had every reason to demand the extradition of the perpetrators and if refused, take military action to apprehend them.


But, as Scott writes, there was a fly in that ointment.


The Taliban were, and one must assume, still are, serious about their religion.  They were, however, not in love with al Qaeda.  Three months before 911, Mullah Omar gave an interview to a western journalist in which he expressed his displeasure with bin Laden.


Granted, the Taliban refused to just hand over their guest, but they knew the man was a hot potato and they needed at least a fig leaf of accommodation to drop him.  They offered to turn bin Laden over to a third country.  We wanted him and that was that.


Were the Taliban just stalling?  Horton looks at the words of Milton Bearden who had been the CIA station chief running the covert war in the 1980s, "We never heard what they were trying to say.  We had no common language.  Ours was, 'Give up bin Laden.'  They were saying, 'Do something to help us give him up'..."  


That the Taliban was trying to dance away from bin Laden never made the news at the time.  Even if they were being cute, it is undeniable that the Bush administration would settle for nothing but absolute compliance.  


We could not take yes for an answer.


Horton goes into much detail, but suffice it to say in the words of Lincoln, "and the war came."


Even after the war started and, supposedly, finished, elements of the Taliban were trying to come to terms with the new regime and were rebuffed.  It should not have been a surprise when later on they would go back to war.


We were "nation building," but it did not seem to be going well.  Our lack of popularity among those we were uplifting was noted by journalist Chris Sands.  The insurgency may not have been an honorable enterprise, but Sands observed, "when civilians are killed by the Taliban in Kandahar, locals still blame the [U.S.-supported] government instead of the Taliban, who are "rarely the subject of the people's fury" in such circumstances."


The project seemed to be meandering such that Karzai, the president, was referred to as the Mayor of Kabul as the writ of the government did not seem to exceed the boundary of the capital.


What to do?  How about a surge, i.e. more troops?


This one would be different from the Iraq endeavor.  It would be baked in a think tank oven by "COINdistas."  COIN refers to Counter Insurgency warfare and it had its stars.


There were old neocon retreads as a supporting cast, but new faces were not wanting such as the Aussie COIN theorist, David Kilcullen.  General James Mattis, who would later become known for a role in the Trump administration, wrote the Counterinsurgency Field Manual, but the guy who really made his brand, such as it is, was General David Petraeus.


Petraeus was the man with a plan.  He and his confreres "promised Obama that with the plan they could have the Taliban sitting at the table, ready to concede to American terms within 18 months–by July 2011."  


That that did not happen was hardly an impediment to Petraeus.  He always claimed his escalation was working, with constant gains, albeit "fragile" and "reversible," which means not actual gains.


No matter that the resistance continued to grow, Dave's rep grew as well, until he and his amanuensis and mistress, Paula Broadwell, were caught sharing classified material.  He was slapped on the wrist with a misdemeanor conviction that might have been a felony for someone else.  Petraeus has not slunk away in disgrace, but is doing well.  You've heard of the term, "empty suit."  This guy was an empty uniform.


What is the point of it all?  Maybe there are riches beneath the soil, but the U.S., and certainly its people will not profit from them.  The Afghans will continue to extract wealth from the land in the form of opium, but your average Afghani will not become rich.


The Greek historian Herodotus related how the Spartan king, Pausanias, after the battle of Platea, contrasted the luxury of the captured Persian king's table as set for dinner and his own poor "spartan" supper.  Pausanias commented that the Persians had "come to rob us of our poverty."


Taliban members must think us that stupid.


History does not stop so, I reached out to Scott as to where we stand now.  He was kind enough to respond:


"Despite the fact that Donald Trump did not believe in the war in Afghanistan, in 2017, he sent more troops, and massively increased airstrikes, killing tens of thousands of people. He did so while at the same time successfully negotiating a withdrawal deal with the Taliban. The terms are that the U.S. will withdraw all combat forces by May 2021, as long as the Taliban agree not to allow international terrorists on their territory.


Joe Biden opposes this deal. He still wants to implement his plan from the Obama years: a garrison of thousands of "counter-terrorism" forces stationed there indefinitely.


Biden may or may not seek regime change against any more secular governments, but he certainly plans on continuing the "war on terrorism," which means war against troublesome radicals anywhere the U.S. military and CIA drone forces can find them from Nigeria to the Philippines.


In the seemingly unlikely chance that Trump is declared the winner of the election after-all, there will still be enormous pressure on him to cancel the deal and stay under the pretext of al Qaeda's return or the dangers of Afghan "ISIS."


Either way, the American people are going to have to insist that the deal is seen through and the U.S.'s role in that tragic war, and the rest of the terror wars, is finally brought to an end."












Tuesday, February 12, 2019

Red Scare Redux- Review of The Plot To Scapegoat Russia

Below is my review of Dan Kovalik's The Plot to Scapegoat Russia as submitted to the Sturbridge Times Magazine (now The Sturbridge Times Town & Country Living Magazine) for the September 2017 issue.

It's a bit late, but still timely in light of the hysteria at large these days.

Return of the Red Scare

The Plot To Scapegoat Russia
By Dan Kovalik
Skyhorse Publishing, 2017 
Paperback, 240 Pages

Dan Kovalik probably never thought that he would have writtenThe Plot To Scapegoat Russia the way he did. Not that he believed the Central Intelligence Agency was beyond any skullduggery in promoting foreign adventures.  Indeed, he has spent years observing the agency’s antics in Latin America.

Mr. Kovalik must be surprised by the fact that the only man we can pin our hopes on to stop the march to conflict, if not nuclear war is Donald Trump.  Trump, being a reactionary plutocrat is the type of person Kovalik would normally have nothing but disdain for.  

It can’t be anything he is too happy about.  Dan Kovalik is an old-school lefty.  He cut his teeth protesting U.S. involvement south of the border, traveling to Nicaragua in 1988 to oppose the Contras.  There may a social program he’s against, but that is hard to imagine.  The Trump agenda must gall him.

Except for one aspect.

Donald Trump was suggesting, in his campaign utterances, that it may not be a bad idea to actually try and get along with Russia.  He suggested as well that maybe we did not have the solution to the Syrian imbroglio.

In that one aspect at least, Donald stood head and shoulders above the competition.  

How did we get to a point in history where a progressive activist could see Donald Trump as preferable to the Democrat’s standard bearer?  It’s a long story and in no way travels a straight line.

He spends much of the book discussing his activities in Latin America.  Kovalik identifies with the Sandinistas and opposes United Fruit (i.e. Chiquita Brands International) Company and their pervasive and destructive influence in Guatemala going back to the 1954 coup.  His account takes the side of the poor and indigenous peoples.  At first, I thought his narrative dwelt a little bit too much on the past.  It does become obvious that he sees U.S. policy as continuing from the past into the present and all cut from the same cloth.

In his coverage of the Cold War between NATO and the Soviets he is also somewhat kind to the memory of the Eastern Bloc.  Not that there is not sufficient blame to go around.

When he does get to the subject of the book’s title, the author is on solid ground.  His detail of the decline and fall of the Soviet Union and the role of people from the West in looting the corpse, as well as the continuing demonization of the Putin regime is worth the price of the book for the uninformed.  That would be most Americans. 

On Page 132 he begins the story of how we started on the road to the new cold war and though he does not say it, the origins of 911.  

“Another momentous and arguably disastrous, Cold War maneuver of the US was its support for the Mujahideen in Afghanistan, which at the time shared a 1000-mile-long border with the Soviet Union.”

Without our support for what turned out to include many fanatical Islamic extremists, including Bin Laden, the Soviet Union would probably still have had a lot on its hands, but would have had been better able to manage any changes necessary. 

Our support for the Mujahideen insured, like for us in Vietnam, that the Soviets could never defeat the enemy.  It would be a slow bleed and would fatally weaken the U.S.S.R.

Things had to change and they did. The Reagan Administration and Mikhail Gorbachev came to a modus vivendi.  On Page 111 the author quotes the LA Times,

“In early February 1990, US leaders made the Soviets an offer.  According to transcripts of meetings in Moscow on Feb. 9th then- Secretary of State James Baker suggested that in exchange for cooperation, US could make ‘iron-clad guarantees’ that NATO would not expand “one inch eastward.”  Less than a week later, Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev agreed to begin reunification talks. No formal deal was struck, but from all the evidence, the quid pro quo was clear: Gorbachev acceded to Germany’s western alignment and the U.S. would limit NATO’s expansion.”

Kovalik notes the promise was quickly broken and most of the old Warsaw Pact are now NATO members.  The expansion continues with the U.S. trying to enlist former Soviet Republics.  It is hard to argue that the world is better for NATO enlargement.

Chapter 7 CLINTON MEDDLES IN RUSSIA WITH DISASTROUS CONSEQUENCES gives an account of the machinations of Bill Clinton’s presidency as regards the Yeltsin regime.  He did not do us proud.  Yeltsin was essentially our stooge until he knew he could not continue.  This led to Putin whose big sin is not being our patsy. 

Chapter 11 THE US EXPANDS AS RUSSIA CONTRACTS: BROKEN PROMISES AND HUMILIATION explores the project to extend our influence at the expense of Russia.  None of it is anything we can brag about, but the worst bit is our Ambassador Pyatt and Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland deciding the fate of the Ukrainian government after we had helped riot out an elected, if corrupt, president.  The pair were recorded doing just that and the heavy-handed discussion is rightly attacked by Kovalik.  He does not mention that the recording went “viral.” *

Mr. Kovalik eventually reaches the reality show of the recent American election.  The desire to blame the Russians for the inept campaign of Hillary Clinton is explored at length as are the commonsense pronouncements of The Donald.  

Suggesting that we not bug the Russkies and maybe overthrowing Syria was not a genius level idea appealed to a population that was tired of wars without result.  The Putin is the devil campaign left something to be desired with many including an old socialist like the author.

Post-election, Trump has not lived up to his better nature.  Kovalik notes on Page 170 that “it is never clear what Trump is truly thinking or intending.”  This is true and whether it is a good strategy or evidence of a scattered mind is a matter for debate.  Trump was quick in throwing some token bombs at a Syrian air base after a supposed chemical attack.  

Since the book has been published, the new president has not bombed North Korea.  He worked out an agreement with Putin for a ceasefire in South West Syria that is holding and cannot make the neocons in or out of his government happy, so we live in hope.

In his short book, Dan Kovalik covers a lot of ground.  The continuing demonization of a nuclear power makes his book an important resource for anyone who wants to understand what is going on.

Some of the author’s views are a bit one sided.  His favoritism of the now Soviet Ancien Regime can seem a bit overboard.  It is at odds with your reviewer’s memory of the brutal repression of the 1956 Hungarian Uprising, and certainly the Gulag Archipelago by Solzhenitsyn.  Still, his account of the anti-Russian hysteria is well sourced with ample footnotes.  Unfortunately, with the media’s parroting of the hostile narrative, from NPR to The New York Times, do not expect him to get glowing reviews.

*The recording is still extant and one can hear it here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WV9J6sxCs5k .  After listening you may be forgiven for wondering if State recruits at clown colleges.


Sunday, November 4, 2018

Precognition: Deja Vu All Over Again

Below is my column for The Sturbridge Times Town & Country Living Magazine for the October issue as submitted to the editor.  Time moves on and even this is a little dated though we are still doing some non-genius level stuff in Syria.


Precognition; Déjà vu all over again
By Richard Morchoe
In 2002 Steven Spielberg made the movie Minority Report based on a Philip K. Dick short story of similar name.  It was a popular film and Dick’s idea is disturbing.   It is that crimes that will be committed in the future can be discerned beforehand.  

According to the story, three mutant idiot-savants, or precogs foresee all serious infractions and arrests can be made in advance, thus sparing society any harm.

Philip K. Dick was a science fiction author more popular in death than in life.  Of course, his prediction from The Minority Report has not come to pass.  We as of yet do not have even one “precog.”

Or do we?

This is not to say necessarily that National Security Advisor John Bolton is an idiot-savant, but he has been threatening to strike Syria in response to something that has not happened.

The U.S. Air Force has bombed Syrian military facilities to teach them a lesson for chemical attacks for which there was spurious evidence but no concrete proof.  Now, Bolton figures the regime might try to do something we don’t know they will or will not do, and we shall bomb for that.  Confused?  You should be.

Bolton has said we are going to take action if Assad uses chemical weapons to bomb the Idlib region, the last refuge of mostly hardcore jihadists.

A few years ago, Assad looked like he could be toppled.  Then he received assistance from the Russians and Iranians and Lebanon’s Hezbollah.   Better than that, he reformulated his army into an effective force that would be difficult to defeat.

On the verge of victory, the last thing he would need to do is use chemical weapons.  They are not effective in battle and would be an excuse for US intervention.  So, what is going on?

Bashar Assad has just about won his war and will reunite the Syrian nation.  To the United States, that is terrible because he is the worst head of state to have ever lived, and why not?  He has to be the worst because we got rid of the last two contenders for that title, Iraq’s Saddam Hussein and Libya’s Muammar al-Gaddafi.  Never mind that we made those two locales places of despair, we would do better in Syria because we say so.

When we kicked over Hussein in Iraq, the Shia, who had been ruled by him were now the majority in government.  At that point, the hot shots at State realized that we had empowered the co-religionists of Iran.  The Iranian Shia religious leaders were the other meanest people who ever lived.  What to do now?

In a prodigious feat of overthinking, we kind of changed sides.  Way back in 2007 Seymour Hersh, whose memoir Reporter is reviewed in this issue, published an article in the New Yorker with the title “The Redirection.”  Nothing ominous there, but the sub-headline, “Is the Administration’s new policy benefitting our enemies in the war on terrorism?” should have set alarm bells going off amongst the erudite audience of that highbrow journal.

Up on Long Hill, we were a bit slower on the uptake.  It was not until the September, 2013 issue that we noticed there had been a change.  Indeed, the mortal enemy who had slain our fellow citizens in two towers was now tacitly our ally.

We noted the new circumstances with the words from George Orwell’s 1984:

“At just this moment it had been announced that Oceania was not after all at war with Eurasia.  Oceania was at war with Eastasia.  Eurasia was an ally.

There was of course no admission that any change had taken place.  Merely it became known, with extreme suddenness and everywhere at once, that Eastasia and not Eurasia was the enemy.”

Our recent history is even more ominous as there was not a statement of who we are in alliance with.  There was the mention of the “Free Syrian Army" a tiny, secularist band of heroes that we would train and arm.  Post-instruction, their weapons would mysteriously appear in the hands of hard-core Jihadis.  That’s okay as long as they were fighting the new bogeyman, Assad.

Does it make any sense?

Less and less to the average American.  Back in January, a group called the Committee for a Responsible Foreign Policy ran a poll and the results showed the public was “Overwhelmingly Opposed to Endless US Military Interventions.”  There is little groundswell for war, even though the mass media is pushing it.  One could be forgiven for thinking that “Chemical Weapons” is Syrian for “Weapons of Mass Destruction” with the same level of evidentiary proof.

The American attitude should not be surprising.  The last three presidents have been “peace” candidates until elected.  The younger Bush campaigned calling for a modest foreign policy.  Obama lampooned Iraq as a “dumb” war.  Trump called for getting along with Russia and not making a worse mess in Syria.

The late John McCain never saw a war he didn’t like and ran in that vein.  Hilary was far more a war candidate than the Donald.  They both lost.

The people have an idea what they want and the winners agree but only until the votes are counted.

If there is a war party, it is not popular with the citizenry.  To get them on board, they have to be propagandized, which is why the mainstream press is always telling us that Assad is diabolical.

In the abovementioned Hersh memoir, the author had meetings with the Syrian leader.  Hersh never made him out to be Mother Teresa, but reported on him as a rational interlocutor.  So why the desire for the man’s blood?

Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson thinks he knows.  Wilkerson was Colin Powell’s chief of staff at the time of the Yellow Cake disaster and that situation led to disillusionment.  Wilkerson, now a professor at William & Mary, warned in an interview on Tuesday, September 11 that “the neoconservative agenda” for an escalated United States war on Syria followed by war on Iran has had a “resurrection” in President Donald Trump’s administration.”

From administration rhetoric, speculation that that is the plan is not unreasonable.   Backing al Nusra, an al Qaeda front In Idlib is only the excuse to defeat Iran in Syria.  Embedded in that ointment is a fly.  That fly is Russia.  Bolton seems to think baiting the Russkies is without cost.

Who knows, it may be.  Turkey shot down a Russian Plane and US forces killed Russian mercenaries in Syria at Deir al-Zour.  The night before this was written, a Russian plane with troops aboard was shot down by Syrian anti-aircraft fire due to an incursion in Syrian air space by Israeli planes.

Russia has to get to it or fold and admit they are not a world power.  If they decide enough is enough and stop being long suffering, the reductio ad absurdum will be nuclear war, and we shall get there.

So far, despite media propaganda, Putin has been the adult in the room.  On Long Hill, we hope he can pull it off again.

Here’s hoping this is not the last issue of The Sturbridge Times Town & Country Living Magazine.